Cambio climático y dinámicas migratorias en el Cuerno de África: una revisión exhaustiva de la literatura y direcciones futuras de investigación

Autores/as

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31637/epsir-2024-412

Palabras clave:

Migración, Cambio climático, Cuerno de África, Conflictos, Inseguridad alimentaria, Desplazamientos, Revisión sistemática de la literatura, Desafíos de investigación

Resumen

Introducción: En este estudio, se analizan referencias relevantes para establecer qué factores determinan los movimientos migratorios en el Cuerno de África y qué papel juega el cambio climático. Metodología: Con una revisión sistemática de la literatura en cinco fases se seleccionan, siguiendo unos criterios de inclusión y exclusión, 221 referencias relevantes. Con ellas se analizan movimientos migratorios y qué factores influyen en ellos. Resultados: Destaca un aumento de las publicaciones desde el año 2011, coincidiendo con una devastadora sequía en la región. Los hallazgos indican que, aunque el cambio climático es un factor importante, otros elementos como la pobreza, la inseguridad y los conflictos tienen un papel aún más significativo en la migración de la región. Discusión: se identifican desafíos como la falta de datos fiables y la necesidad de un enfoque multidisciplinario para abordar estos problemas complejos. La región enfrenta una situación crítica con altos niveles de inseguridad alimentaria, conflictos y vulnerabilidad climática, lo que sugiere que el cambio climático es un factor añadido a una situación ya complicada. Conclusiones: El estudio concluye que es crucial integrar el cambio climático, la migración y los conflictos en investigaciones futuras para desarrollar respuestas efectivas y sostenibles.

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Biografía del autor/a

Gema Gómez Álvaro, Comillas Pontifical University

Graduated in International Relations, Political Science, and Public Management, with a Master's degree in Advanced Studies on Islam in Contemporary European Society. She has collaborated as a research assistant in the Learn Africa and Stop Fistula programs of the Women for Africa Foundation. She is currently part of the Doctoral program in International Migrations and Development Cooperation at the University Institute for Migration Studies at Comillas Pontifical University in Madrid.

Raquel Caro Carretero, Comillas Pontifical University

Dr. Raquel Caro-Carretero, as an Associate Professor in the Department of Industrial Organization at the ICAI School of Engineering of the Pontifical Comillas University of Madrid, has extensive teaching experience as a researcher. Her work covers various areas, from the application of statistics in engineering and economic-financial fields to the analysis of migrations, tourism, disasters, and Space Sciences. She is responsible for the AON Spain Foundation Chair of Catastrophes at Comillas. She has shared her knowledge in the Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences at Comillas (ICADE). Her commitment to academic excellence and dedication to research are reflected in her active participation in international conferences, interdisciplinary collaborations, and publications in high-impact journals.

Citas

Abdul-Razak, M., & Kruse, S. (2017). The Adaptive Capacity of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Change in the Northern Region of Ghana. Climate Risk Management, 17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.06.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.06.001

Achour, M., & Lacan, N. (2011). Drought in Somalia: A migration crisis. The State of Environmental Migration, Journal Article. https://bitly.cx/3go9

Afifi, T., Govil, R., Sakdapolrak, P., & Warner, K. (2012). Climate Change, Vulnerability and Human Mobility: Perspectives of Refugees from the East and Horn of Africa (1). United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS). https://bitly.cx/nvSs

Alemayehu, A., & Bewket, W. (2017). Smallholder Farmers’ Coping and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Variability in the Central Highlands of Ethiopia. Local Environment, 22(7), 825-839. https://doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2017.1290058 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13549839.2017.1290058

Arksey, H., & O’Malley, L. (2005). Scoping studies: Towards a methodological framework. International Journal of Social Research Methodology, 8(1), 19-32. https://doi.org/10.1080/1364557032000119616 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1364557032000119616

Black, R., Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., & Thomas, D. (2011). The effect of environmental change on human migration. Migration and Global Environmental Change – Review of Drivers of Migration, 21, S3-S11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001

Black, R., Bennett, S., Thomas, S., & Beddington, J. (2011). Climate change: Migration as adaptation. Nature, 478, 447–449. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/478477a

Black, R., Kniveton, D., Skeldon, R., Coppard, D., Murata, A., & Schmidt-Verkerk, K. (2008). Demographics and Climate Change: Future Trends and Their Policy Implications for Migration. Working Paper – Brighton, Development Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty – University of Sussex. https://bitly.cx/4ebxg

Buhaug, H. (2010). Climate not to blame for African civil wars. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(38), 16477-16482. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1005739107 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1005739107

Calow, R. C., MacDonald, A. M., Nicol, A. L., & Robins, N. S. (2010). Ground water security and drought in Africa: Linking availability, access, and demand. Ground Water, 48(2), 246-256. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00558.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00558.x

Das, O. (2013). Environmental Protection, Security and Armed Conflict: A Sustainable Development Perspective. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781004685 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781004685

Delgado, C., Tschunkert, K., & Smith, D. (2023). Food insecurity in Africa: drivers and solutions. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep47283 DOI: https://doi.org/10.55163/GISR2785

Díaz-Cuevas, M.P., Becerra-Fernández, D., & Villar Lama, A. (2021). Transición Ecológica y Emergencia Climática en las enseñanzas de Turismo. Cuadernos de Turismo, 48, 325-349. https://doi.org/10.6018/turismo.492791 DOI: https://doi.org/10.6018/turismo.492791

Eriksen, S., Nightingale, A., and Eakin, H. (2015). Reframing adaptation: The political nature of climate change adaptation. Global environmental change-human and policy dimensions, 35, 523-533. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.014 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.014

Fernández -Sánchez, H., King, K., & Enríquez-Hernández, C. (2020). Revisiones Sistemáticas Exploratorias como metodología para la síntesis del conocimiento científico. Revista Universitaria de Enfermería, 17(1), 87-94. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/eneo.23958421e.2020.1.697

Freeman, L. (2017). Environmental Change, Migration, and Conflict in Africa: A Critical Examination of the Interconnections. Journal of Environment and Development, 26(4), 351-374. https://doi.org/10.1177/1070496517727325 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1070496517727325

Fulton, K., & Nickels, B. (2017). Africa’s pastoralists: A new battleground for terrorism. Washington, DC: African Centre for Strategic Studies. https://bitly.cx/ZL9OO

Gebremeskel Haile, G., Tang, Q., Sun, S., Huang, Z., Zhang, X., & Liu, X. (2019). Droughts in East Africa: Causes, impacts and resilience. Earth-Science Reviews, 193, 146-161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.04.015ga DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.04.015

Gebrechorkos, S., Taye, M., Birhanu, B., Solomon, D., & Demissie, T. (2023). Future Changes in Climate and Hydroclimate Extremes in East Africa. Earth's Future, 11. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003011

Gebrewold, B., & Bloom, T. (2016). Understanding migrant decisions: from Sub-Saharan Africa to the Mediterranean region. https://bitly.cx/85qmS DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315549156

Gray, C., & Muller, V. (2012). Drought and Population Mobility in Rural Ethiopia. World Development, 40(1), 134-145. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.05.023

Gray, C., & Wise, E. (2016). Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration. Climatic Change, 135(3), 555-568. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1592-y

Griffith, D., Muneepeerakul, R., Guerry, G., Cabrero, A. C., Johnson, J. C., Munoz-Carpena, R., Puma, M., Lall, U., & Homayounfar, M. (2023). Migration and livelihood constellations: Assessing common themes in the face of environmental change in Somalia and among Agro-Pastoral peoples. International Migration, 61(5), 186-200. https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.13122 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.13122

Hendrix, C. S., & Salehyan, I. (2012). Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 35-50. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311426165 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343311426165

Hermans, K., & Garbe, L. (2019). Droughts, Livelihoods, and Human Migration in Northern Ethiopia. Regional Environmental Change, 19(4), 1101-1111. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01473-z DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01473-z

Hermans, K., Wiederkehr, C., Groth, J., & Sakdapolrak, P. (2023). What we know and do not know about reciprocal pathways of environmental change and migration: Lessons from Ethiopia. Ecology and Society, 28(3). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-14329-280315 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-14329-280315

Hoch, J. M., de Bruin, S. P., Buhaug, H., Von Uexkull, N., van Beek, R., & Wanders, N. (2021). Projecting armed conflict risk in Africa towards 2050 along the SSP-RCP scenarios: A machine learning approach. Environmental Research Letters, 16(12). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3db2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3db2

Horwood, C. (2015). Irregular Migration Flows in the Horn of Africa: Challenges and implications for source, transit and destination countries. Occasional Paper Series, 18. https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/horn-of-africa.pdf

Intergovernment Authority on Development. (2023). Horn of Africa Groundwater for Resilience Program. IGAD. https://bitly.cx/CzE1

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2023). AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/

Internal Displacement Moritoring Centre (IDMC). (2023). Global Report on Internal Displacement. Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. https://shorturl.at/9lIVH

International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2011). Migration mapping service between Somalia and Dadaab in Kenya highlights need for better protection of drought and famine victims. Geneva: IOM. https://bitly.cx/6mJ

International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2011). Glossary on Migration. https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/iml_34_glossary.pdf

International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2018). Migración y cambio climático. https://www.iom.int/es/migracion-y-cambio-climatico

Kamau, J. W. (2021). Is counter-terrorism counterproductive? A case study of Kenya’s response to terrorism, 1998-2020. South African Journal of International Affairs, 28(2), 203-231. https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2021.1924252 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2021.1924252

Lindvall, K., Kinsman, J., Abraha, A., Dalmar, A., Abdullahi, M. F., Godefay, H., Thomas, L. L., Mohamoud, M. O., Mohamud, B. K., Musumba, J., & Schumann, B. (2020). Health status and health care needs of drought-related migrants in the horn of africa—A qualitative investigation. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(16), 1-18. Scopus. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17165917 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17165917

Marchand, K., Reinold, J., & Silva, R. (2017). Study on Migration Routes in the East and Horn of Africa. Maastricht Graduate School of Governance.

Marquina, A. (2010). Global Warming and Climate Change. Prospects and Policies for Asia and Europe. Basingstoke, Palgrave MacMillan. https://bitly.cx/zJTVv DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230281257

Maystadt, J., & Ecker, O. (2014). Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Lovestock Price Shocks? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 96(4), 1157–1182. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau010

Mueller, V., Sheriff, G., Dou, X., & Gray, C. (2020). Temporary migration and climate variation in eastern Africa. World Development, 126, 104704. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104704

Muller, J. C. Y. (2014). Adapting to climate change and addressing drought – learning from the Red Cross Red Crescent experiences in the Horn of Africa. High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy, 3, 31-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.03.009 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.03.009

ND-GAIN. (2023). Country Index Technical Report. University of Notre Dame. https://gain.nd.edu/assets/522870/nd_gain_countryindextechreport_2023_01.pdf

Nicholson, S. E. (2014). A detailed look at the recent drought situation in the Greater Horn of Africa. Journal of Arid Environments, 103, 71-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2013.12.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2013.12.003

Nicholson, S. E. (2017). Climate and climatic variability of rainfall over eastern Africa. Reviews of Geophysics, 55(3), 590-635. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000544 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016RG000544

Renaud, F., Bogardi, J., Janos, J., & Warner, K. (2007). Control, adapt or flee: How to face environmental migration? (Vol. 5). UNU- EHS.

Seife, T. K. (2021). The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security in the Greater Horn of Africa. Politikon, 48(1), 98-114. https://doi.org/10.1080/02589346.2020.1861509 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02589346.2020.1861509

The World Bank (2023) A New Era in Development: Annual report 2023. The World Bank. https://www.bancomundial.org/es/about/annual-report#anchor-annual

Thiollet, H. (2009). La Mobilité dans la Corne de l’Afrique: Entre urgence humanitaire et contrainte sécuritaire. Migrations Société, 21(121). https://bitly.cx/3qd8E DOI: https://doi.org/10.3917/migra.121.0075

United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). (2023). El Cuerno de África. https://www.unfpa.org/es/el-cuerno-de-%C3%A1frica

Descargas

Publicado

2024-07-31

Cómo citar

Gómez Álvaro, G., & Caro Carretero, R. (2024). Cambio climático y dinámicas migratorias en el Cuerno de África: una revisión exhaustiva de la literatura y direcciones futuras de investigación . European Public & Social Innovation Review, 9, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.31637/epsir-2024-412

Número

Sección

Humanismo y Ciencias Sociales