Crédito y crecimiento económico. El papel estratégico de las instituciones públicas en el Ecuador

Freddy Lenin Villarreal Satama

doi:10.31637/epsir-2024-1557

Authors

Freddy Lenin Villarreal Satama Universidad de los Hemisferios https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7883-1718

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31637/epsir-2024-1557

Keywords:

Bank Credit, Economic growth, Public Banking, PIB, Unemployment, inflation, interest rates, Country Risk

Abstract

Introduction: This study refers to the analysis of economic development through public credit and impact variables such as inflation, country risk, unemployment and foreign investment. Methodology: A quantitative study is carried out using the OLS-Anova method and multiple linear regression considering different multicollinearity, normality and residual tests to generate a final model in the period 2000-2023. Results: They indicate that the proposed variables are significant, especially public credit that helps in generating sources of work through entrepreneurship. Discussion: Regarding Public Bank Credit, the coefficient for 0.00000032261, which indicates a positive relationship with log(GDP), which indicates that for each unit of increase in Public Bank Credit, log(GDP) increases by 0.00000032261 units. . Conclusions: Sustainable economic development requires a controlled balance between access to public bank credit, job creation, inflation and effective country risk management. Coherent and transparent public policies, accompanied by strong regulatory oversight, are essential to ensure that these elements align in a way that promotes inclusive and sustainable growth.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Freddy Lenin Villarreal Satama, Universidad de los Hemisferios

Lenin Villarreal S. has a Ph.D. in Economics and Business from the University of Girona - Spain, MBA and Engineering from the National Polytechnic School in Quito-Ecuador. He is currently Director of Research at Universidad Hemisferios and professor of exact sciences and research methodology. His main research interests are non-parametric models of operations research and econometric modeling.

References

Avdukic, A. y Asutay, M. (2024). Testing the development impact of Islamic banking: Islamic moral economy approach to development. Economic Systems, 101229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101229 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101229

Banco Central del Ecuador. (4 de abril de 2024). Riesgo país. https://www.bce.fin.ec/

Banco Mundial. (1 de mayo 2024a). Desempleo, total (% de la fuerza laboral total) (estimación modelada de la OIT) - Ecuador. https://datos.bancomundial.org/indicador/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS?locations=EC

Banco Mundial. (7 de mayo de 2024b). Inversión extranjera directa, entrada neta de capital (% del PIB) - Ecuador. https://datos.bancomundial.org/indicador/BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS?locations=EC

Boeff, D. (2022). Agenda 2030 en México. Pandemia de COVID-19 asevera desigualdades de género. Social Review, 11(1), 1-21. https://edulab.es/revSOCIAL/article/view/3285/1914 DOI: https://doi.org/10.37467/gkarevsocial.v11.3285

Canto-Cuevas, F. J., Palacín-Sánchez, M. J. y di Pietro, F. (2016). Efectos del ciclo económico en el crédito comercial: El caso de la pyme española. European Research on Management and Business Economics, 22(2), 55-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iedee.2015.11.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iedee.2015.11.001

Capeleti, P., García, M. y Miessi Sanches, F. (2022). Countercyclical credit policies and banking concentration: Evidence from Brazil. Journal of Banking & Finance, 143, 106589. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106589 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106589

Clavellina Miller, J. L. (2013). Crédito bancario y crecimiento económico en México. Economía Informa, 378, 14-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0185-0849(13)71306-9 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0185-0849(13)71306-9

Datos Macro. (2024, junio 1). PIB-Producto Interno Bruto. https://datosmacro.expansion.com/pib

De la Garza, J. M. B. G. B. (2013). Análisis Estadístico Multivariante (Á. Obregón, Ed.; 1.ª ed., vol. 1). Mc GrawHill.

Frame, W. S., Lazaryan, N., McLemore, P. y Mihov, A. (2024). Operational loss recoveries and the macroeconomic environment: Evidence from the U.S. banking sector. Journal of Banking & Finance, 165, 107220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107220 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107220

Galindo-Martín, M. Á., Méndez-Picazo, M. T. y Castaño-Martínez, M. S. (2016). Crecimiento, progreso económico y emprendimiento. Journal of Innovation & Knowledge, 1(1), 6268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jik.2016.01.006 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jik.2016.01.006

Hussain Khan, H. y Kutan, A. M. (2023). Banking sector competition and firms’ financial constraints: Firm-level evidence from developing economies. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 88, 101848. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2023.101848 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2023.101848

INEC. (2024). Inflación. Estadísticas por Tema. https://www.ecuadorencifras.gob.ec/estadisticas/

Lai, V. S., Ye, X. y Zhao, L. (2019). Are market views on banking industry useful for forecasting economic growth? Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 57, 101082. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2018.10.011 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2018.10.011

Ma, Q., Xu, L., Anwar, S. y Lu, Z. (2023). Banking competition and the use of shadow credit: Evidence from lending marketplaces. Global Finance Journal, 58, 100884. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2023.100884 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2023.100884

Martínez, A. y Rodríguez, P. (2023). Mujeres emprendedoras y actividades de comercio informal en organizaciones virtuales. Visual Review, 15(4). https://visualcompublications.es/revVISUAL/article/view/4635/2957 DOI: https://doi.org/10.37467/revvisual.v10.4635

Martínez Rivera, S. E. (2017). China: ¿Oportunidad o utopía para el crecimiento económico de México y de América Latina? Economía Informa, 403, 21-34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.002 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecin.2017.05.002

Montanero Fernández, J. (2019). Manual Abreviado de Estadística Multivariante (vol. 1). Departamento de Matemáticas Universidad de Extremadura.

Paredes, M. y Superintendencia de Bancos. (6 de junio de 2024). Análisis Financiero Sistema Banca Pública. Superintendencia de Bancos. https://www.superbancos.gob.ec/estadisticas/portalestudios/

Pérez, E. (2018). La inclusión financiera para la inserción productiva y el papel de la banca de desarrollo. https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/44213/1/S1800568_es.pdf

PNUD. (2024). ¿Qué son los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible? https://www.undp.org/es/sustainable-development-goals

Spierdijk, L., IJtsma, P. y Shaffer, S. (2021). U.S. banking deregulation and local economic growth: A spatial analysis. Spatial Statistics, 43, 100506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2021.100506 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2021.100506

Superintendencia de Bancos. (2022, diciembre 30). Superintendencia de Bancos del Ecuador. Sistema Financiero. https://www.superbancos.gob.ec/bancos/

Superintendencia de Bancos. (2024, junio 7). Boletín financiero-Banca Pública del Ecuador. https://www.superbancos.gob.ec/estadisticas/portalestudios/instituciones-publicas/

Tan, Y. y Walheer, B. (2024). Stability and economic performances in the banking industry: The case of China. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 95, 326-345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.009 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2024.04.009

Véliz Capuñay, C. (2017). Análisis multivariante: Métodos estadísticos multivariantes para la investigación (R. Rodríguez, Ed.; 1.ª ed., vol. 1). Cengage.

Vizcaíno, M. (2022). Propuesta de un modelo de economía circular para una cadena de valor. Social Review, 11(1), 1-34. https://edulab.es/revSOCIAL/article/view/3421/1921 DOI: https://doi.org/10.37467/gkarevsocial.v11.3421