Impacto del gasto público en el crecimiento económico: un análisis a nivel local en ciudades Ecuatorianas
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31637/epsir-2025-2008Palabras clave:
gasto público, crecimiento, económico, desarrollo local, autonomía municipal, Ecuador, inversión, innovaciónResumen
Introducción: Este estudio analiza la relación entre el gasto público y el desarrollo económico urbano en ciudades ecuatorianas, específicamente en cómo el gasto de inversión impacta el crecimiento económico. Metodología: Se utiliza un modelo de datos de panel para estudiar 19 ciudades estratificadas por tamaño, analizando la correlación entre el gasto corriente e inversión. Resultados: El gasto en inversión tiene un impacto positivo significativo en el crecimiento económico, particularmente en las ciudades metropolitanas, mientras que el gasto corriente presenta efectos variables según el nivel de desarrollo. Conclusiones: Una gestión eficiente y estratégica del gasto público es esencial para el desarrollo local. Se recomienda promover mayor autonomía municipal y mejorar la coordinación intergubernamental.
Descargas
Citas
Afonso, A. y Venâncio, A. (2020). Local territorial reform and regional spending efficiency. Local Government Studies, 46(6), 888-910. https://doi.org/10.1080/03003930.2019.1690995 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/03003930.2019.1690995
Ahuja, D. y Pandit, D. (2020). Public expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from the developing countries. FIIB Business Review, 9(3), 228-236. https://doi.org/10.1177/2319714520938901 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/2319714520938901
Aigheyisi, O. S. (2013). The relative impacts of federal capital and recurrent expenditures on Nigeria’s economy (1980-2011). American Journal of Economics, 3(5), 210-221. https://doi.org/10.5923/j.economics.20130305.02
Arvin, M. B., Pradhan, R. P. y Nair, M. S. (2021). Are there links between institutional quality, government expenditure, tax revenue, and economic growth? Evidence from low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Economic Analysis and Policy, 70, 468-489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.03.011 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.03.011
Attari, M. I. J. y Javed, A. Y. (2013). Inflation, economic growth and government expenditure of Pakistan: 1980-2010. Procedia Economics and Finance, 5, 58-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(13)00010-5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(13)00010-5
Bastidas, C. B. (2019). Information systems and technologies. [Sistemas y tecnologías de información]. RISTI - Revista Ibérica de Sistemas e Tecnologías de Informacao, (E18), 9-10. https://www.risti.xyz/issues/ristie53.pdf
Bosi, S. y Nourry, C. (2007). Growth and fluctuations: The role of public dividends and public spending. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 43(3-4), 420-445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmateco.2006.06.005 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmateco.2006.06.005
Buthelezi, E. M. (2023). Impact of government expenditure on economic growth in different states in South Africa. Cogent Economics y Finance, 11(1), 2209959. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2209959 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2209959
Canavire-Bacarreza, G., Martinez-Vazquez, J. y Yedgenov, B. (2020). Identifying and disentangling the impact of fiscal decentralization on economic growth. World Development, 127, 104742. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104742 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104742
Chandana, A., Adamu, J. y Musa, A. (2024). Impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria, 1970-2019. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS), 11(2), 6. https://dc.cbn.gov.ng/jas/vol11/iss2/6
de Souza Cardoso, D. y Barbosa de Carvalho, L. (2023). Effects of fiscal consolidation on income inequality: narrative evidence from South America. Empirical Economics, 64(3), 1177-1218. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02279-5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02279-5
Hanif, I., Wallace, S. y Gago-de-Santos, P. (2020). Economic growth by means of fiscal decentralization: an empirical study for federal developing countries. Sage Open, 10(4), 2158244020968088. https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244020968088 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244020968088
Ijaz, S., Hassan, A., Tarazi, A. y Fraz, A. (2020). Linking bank competition, financial stability, and economic growth. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 21(1), 200-221. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2020.11761 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2020.11761
Jackson, P. M. (2023). The changing role of public spending. En Public Management and Governance (pp. 27-38). Routledge. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003282839-4
Jalles, J. T. (2021). Dynamics of government spending cyclicality. Economic Modelling, 97, 411-427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.04.010 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.04.010
Kandil, M. (2006). Variation in the effects of government spending shocks with methods of financing: Evidence from the US. International Review of Economics y Finance, 15(4), 463-486. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2004.09.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2004.09.001
Khan, I., Tan, D., Hassan, S. T. y Bilal, A. (2022). Role of alternative and nuclear energy in stimulating environmental sustainability: impact of government expenditures. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(25), 37894-37905. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-18306-4 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-18306-4
Khan, S. A. R., Zhang, Y., Kumar, A., Zavadskas, E. y Streimikiene, D. (2020). Measuring the impact of renewable energy, public health expenditure, logistics, and environmental performance on sustainable economic growth. Sustainable development, 28(4), 833-843. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2034 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2034
Kimaro, E. L., Keong, C. C. y Sea, L. L. (2017). Government expenditure, efficiency, and economic growth: a panel analysis of Sub-Saharan African low-income countries. African Journal of Economic Review, 5(2), 34-54. http://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.264565
Kis-Katos, K. y Sjahrir, B. S. (2017). The impact of fiscal and political decentralization on local public investment in Indonesia. Journal of Comparative Economics, 45(2), 344-365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2017.03.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2017.03.003
Macas-Acosta, G., Macas-Lituma, G. y Vergara-Romero, A. (2022). The internal and external factors that determined private investment in Ecuador 2007-2020. Economies, 10(10), 248. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10100248 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10100248
Maulid, L. C., Bawono, I. R. y Sudibyo, Y. A. (2021). The effect of government expenditure on economic growth in Indonesia. Ekuilibrium: Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Ilmu Ekonomi, 16(1), 24-38. https://doi.org/10.24269/ekuilibrium.v16i1.2021.pp24-38 DOI: https://doi.org/10.24269/ekuilibrium.v16i1.2021.pp24-38
Meričková, B. M., Nemec, J., Svidroňová, M. M. y Pischko, V. (2017). Analysis of the relationship between the size and structure of public expenditure and socio-economic development. Ekonomický časopis, 65(4), 320-333. http://hdl.handle.net/11159/3881
Montero. R. (2005). Test de Hausman. Documentos de Trabajo en Economía Aplicada. Universidad de Granada. España. https://www.ugr.es/~montero/matematicas/hausman.pdf
Nasir, M. S., Wibowo, A. R. y Yansyah, D. (2021). The determinants of economic growth: Empirical study of 10 Asia-Pacific countries. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 149-160. http://doi.org/10.18752/sjie.v10i1.15310 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.18752
Ndoricimpa, A. (2020). Threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in Africa: new evidence. Journal of Economics and Development, 22(2), 187-207. https://doi.org/10.1108/JED-01-2020-0001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JED-01-2020-0001
Nggada, M. H., Yusha’u, I. y Ya’u, S. (2021). Public expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria: A nonlinear analysis. Journal of Economics and Allied Research, 6(2), 245-254. https://jearecons.com/index.php/jearecons/article/view/154
Nyasha, S. y Odhiambo, N. M. (2019). The impact of public expenditure on economic growth: a review of international literature. Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 19(2), 81-101. https://doi.org/10.2478/foli-2019-0015 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/foli-2019-0015
Ochoa-Rico, M. S., Jimber-del-Río, J. A., Cornejo-Marcos, G. y Vergara-Romero, A. (2022). Characterization of the Territory and Estimation of a Synthetic Index of Social Welfare. TEM Journal, 11(3). https://doi.org/10.18421/TEM113-34 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18421/TEM113-34
Okoye, L. U., Omankhanlen, A. E., Okoh, J. I., Adeleye, N. B., Ezeji, F. N., Ezu, G. K. y Ehikioya, B. I. (2021). Analyzing the energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Nigeria. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(1), 378-387. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10768 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10768
Onabote, A. A., Ohwofasa, B. O. y Ogunjumo, R. A. (2023). Government sectoral spending and human development in Nigeria: Is there a link? Heliyon, 9(7). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17545 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17545
Parrado, R., Bosello, F., Delpiazzo, E., Hinkel, J., Lincke, D. y Brown, S. (2020). Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea-level rise impacts and coastal zone protection. Climatic Change, 160(2), 283-302. https://lc.cx/YXQTeY DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02664-y
Paudel, R. C. (2023). Capital expenditure and economic growth: A disaggregated analysis for Nepal. Cogent Economics y Finance, 11(1), 2191449. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2191449 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2191449
Prasetyo, P. E. (2020). The role of government expenditure and investment for MSME growth: Empirical study in Indonesia. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(10), 471-480. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no10.471 DOI: https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no10.471
Rambe, R. A., Purmini, P., Armelly, A., Alfansi, L. y Febriani, R. E. (2022). Efficiency comparison of pro-growth poverty reduction spending before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: A study of regional governments in Indonesia. Economies, 10(6), 150. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10060150 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10060150
Ramoni-Perazzi, J. y Romero, H. (2022). Exchange rate volatility, corruption, and economic growth. Heliyon, 8(12). E12328. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e12328 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e12328
Saidi, Y. y Ochi, A. (2023). Estimating relationships among foreign direct investment, governance quality, and economic growth in developing countries using the threshold auto‐regressive model. Regional Science Policy y Practice, 15(2). https://lc.cx/TAlG4b DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12654
Saidi, Y., Ochi, A. y Maktouf, S. (2023). FDI inflows, economic growth, and governance quality trilogy in developing countries: A panel VAR analysis. Bulletin of Economic Research, 75(2), 426-449. https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12364 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12364
Salfina, L., Nurtati, N., Meidona, S. y Elvina, Y. (2023). The Effect of Inflation and Government Spending on Economic Growth in The West Sumatra Province. Husnayain Business Review, 3(2), 75-81. https://doi.org/10.54099/hbr.v3i2.702 DOI: https://doi.org/10.54099/hbr.v3i2.702
Sierra Sánchez, J., Sotelo González, J. y Vivar Zurita, H. (2020). X-ray of Spanish universities: management, structure, educational programmes and budgets. Culture and Education, Cultura y Educación, 32(4), 738-775. https://doi.org/10.1080/11356405.2020.1819121 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/11356405.2020.1819121
Shen, F., Liu, B., Luo, F., Wu, C., Chen, H. y Wei, W. (2021). The effect of economic growth target constraints on green technology innovation. Journal of Environmental Management, 292, 112765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112765 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112765
Sumandeep, Kiran, R. y Sharma, R. K. (2024). Investigating the relationship of government revenue and expenditure on economic growth using a generalized method of moments: Does state-level panel ensure sustainable growth? Plos one, 19(5), e0301764. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0301764 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0301764
Tang, J. y Qin, F. (2021). Analyzing the effect of local government competition on green total factor productivity from the market segmentation perspective in China—Evidence from a three-stage DEA model. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 9, 763945. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.763945 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.763945
Thanh, S. D., Hart, N. y Canh, N. P. (2020). Public spending, public governance and economic growth at the Vietnamese provincial level: A disaggregate analysis. Economic Systems, 44(4), 100780. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100780 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100780
Wandeda, D. O., Masai, W. y Nyandemo, S. M. (2021). Institutional quality and economic growth: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa countries. African Journal of Economic Review, 9(4), 106-125. http://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.315816
Wardhani, R., Rossieta, H. y Martani, D. (2017). Good governance and the impact of government spending on performance of local government in Indonesia. International Journal of Public Sector Performance Management, 3(1), 77-102. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJPSPM.2017.082503 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJPSPM.2017.082503
Wong, S. Y. (2020). Assessment of public expenditure efficiency: A review. Journal of Economics and Sustainability (JES), 2(2), 27-38. https://lc.cx/vcus2a DOI: https://doi.org/10.32890/jes2020.2.2.3
Wu, H., Li, Y., Hao, Y., Ren, S. y Zhang, P. (2020). Environmental decentralization, local government competition, and regional green development: Evidence from China. Science of the Total Environment, 708, 135085. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135085 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135085
Yang, Z., Gao, W., Han, Q. y Qi, L. (2024). Aggravating or alleviating? Smart city construction and urban inequality in China. Technology in Society, 77, 102562. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2024.102562 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2024.102562
Yumei, H., Iqbal, W., Irfan, M. y Fátima, A. (2021). The dynamics of public spending on sustainable green economy: role of technological innovation and industrial structure effects. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17407-4 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17407-4
Zea-de la Torre, M. Á., Jímber-del Río, J. A. y Núñez-Tabales, J. (2024). Residential customer satisfaction in a Latin American urban context. Journal of the Knowledge Economy. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-01818-y DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-01818-y
Zhang, D., Mohsin, M., Rasheed, A. K., Chang, Y. y Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2021). Public spending and green economic growth in BRI region: mediating role of green finance. Energy Policy, 153, 112256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112256 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112256
Zhang, W. B. (2018). Economic growth theory: capital, knowledge, and economic Structures. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781351159449 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781351159449
Zhang, W. B. (2020). The general economic theory. Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-56204-5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-56204-5
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2025 Álex Olalla-Hernández, Andrés-Renato Jacome-Gagñay
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under Creative Commons Non Commercial, No Derivatives Attribution 4.0. International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.), that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
