Enfoques prospectivos para anticipar tendencias y mejorar los procesos de innovación en organizaciones

Luis Manuel Fernandez Arzuaga; Giovanny Castro Manjarrez; Marielma Martínez Córdoba; César Galindo Angulo; José Luis Sierra Mendoza

doi:10.31637/epsir-2026-2750

Authors

Luis Manuel Fernandez Arzuaga Fundación Universitaria Colombo Internacional https://orcid.org/0009-0009-2308-8088
Giovanny Castro Manjarrez Popular University of Cesar https://orcid.org/0009-0001-6553-616X
Marielma Martínez Córdoba Fundación Universitaria del Área Andina https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9595-2236
César Galindo Angulo Popular University of Cesar https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3264-0638
José Luis Sierra Mendoza Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8634-8603

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31637/epsir-2026-2750

Keywords:

Anticipation, Organizational Learning, Dynamic Capabilities, Strategic Management, Organizational Innovation, Foresight, Trends

Abstract

Introduction: The growing uncertainty and dynamism of organizational environments have driven the adoption of foresight approaches to anticipate trends and strengthen innovation. This study analyzes how such practices influence the early identification of opportunities, risk reduction, and the improvement of innovative capabilities in Latin American organizations. Methodology: A sequential mixed-method design was applied, consisting of a Delphi panel with 15 experts and a survey administered to 60 organizations from Colombia, Venezuela, and Mexico. The analysis integrated qualitative content techniques with descriptive and correlational statistics, evaluating variables such as foresight maturity, anticipation capacity, and innovation performance. Results: Sixty-eight percent of organizations with high foresight maturity showed elevated levels of anticipation, compared to 27% with low maturity. The correlation between foresight and innovation performance was positive and significant (r = 0.71). Colombia reported the highest level of foresight adoption (mean = 3.9/5), followed by Mexico (3.4/5) and Venezuela (3.1/5). Organizations with formal foresight practices reported 22% more annual innovation initiatives than those without such practices. Discussions: Foresight generates greater value when integrated with agile processes, organizational learning, and flexible structures oriented toward change. Conclusions: Foresight strengthens innovation when there is coherence between leadership, internal capabilities, and collaborative dynamics.

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Author Biographies

Luis Manuel Fernandez Arzuaga, Fundación Universitaria Colombo Internacional

Candidate for a Master’s degree in Public Management; Master’s degree in Project Management; Professional in Electronic Engineering with a specialisation in Project Management. He has training in university teaching. He has experience in the planning, formulation and execution of projects in the public, academic and technological sectors. He has held key roles in both public and private sectors, distinguishing himself as an R&D&I project manager, webmaster and professional engineer. University lecturer in Project Formulation within the Specialisation in Project Management, Project Management and Project Formulation and Evaluation within the Business Administration programme, and Innovation and Entrepreneurship within the Public Accounting programme at UNIGERMANA, where he promotes critical thinking as a cornerstone of transformation in educational and business contexts.

Giovanny Castro Manjarrez, Popular University of Cesar

Bachelor of Business Administration with a Master’s in Business Administration and specialisations in Marketing Management and Business Administration. Over 25 years’ experience in higher education, with training in teaching, project development, IT tools, and quantitative and qualitative research. Extensive experience in self-assessment, accreditation and curriculum development for academic programmes, as well as in research, with academic publications. Recognised for his leadership skills, teamwork, critical thinking and strategic vision focused on digital transformation.

Marielma Martínez Córdoba, Fundación Universitaria del Área Andina

Research lecturer. Master’s degree in Research and Development Project Management. Economist by profession. Associate-level researcher at Minciencias; mentor on the ‘Digital Business Discovery’ phase of the in-person Apps.co programme.

César Galindo Angulo, Popular University of Cesar

An economist with a strong background and experience in digital marketing, e-commerce and new technologies. Holds a Master’s degree in R&D Project Management and E-commerce, with diplomas in competitiveness and e-commerce from institutions in the Americas and Europe. Extensive international experience as an Online Marketing Manager, market researcher and trainer, as well as experience in binational organisations. Digital entrepreneur, senior consultant and mentor in competitiveness and technology entrepreneurship programmes, with a strategic focus on innovation and business development.

José Luis Sierra Mendoza, Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Bachelor of Business Administration, Master’s in Project Management, with specialisations in Public Management, Environmental Management and Project Management. He has additional training in university teaching, human resources, organisational psychology, finance, customer service and emotional intelligence. Extensive experience in the formulation and implementation of projects in the public and private sectors, and in administrative and human resources management, notably as Secretary General of the Valledupar Municipal Council. Experience as a university lecturer at UNAD and the Universidad Popular del Cesar, and as Director of the Technical Corporation for Development and Labour in Cesar (CORTRADC).

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