Variables estratégicas para el desarrollo sostenible del Ecuador: un análisis prospectivo con MIC-MAC para el período 2025-2030

Paola Andrea Suárez Torres; Amparo Isabel Pilicita Garrido; Yesenia Elizabeth Sánchez Torres; Digna Marcela Viteri Moya; César Antonio Portero Barrantes; Jesika Madelina Ojeda Hidalgo

doi:10.31637/epsir-2026-2489

Authors

Paola Andrea Suárez Torres Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE https://orcid.org/0009-0001-1451-8017
Amparo Isabel Pilicita Garrido Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE https://orcid.org/0009-0009-5690-3712
Yesenia Elizabeth Sánchez Torres Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE https://orcid.org/0009-0004-0464-787X
Digna Marcela Viteri Moya Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6258-8629
César Antonio Portero Barrantes Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE
Jesika Madelina Ojeda Hidalgo Latin American Agribusiness Development Corporation (LAAD AMERICAS N.V)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31637/epsir-2026-2489

Keywords:

Management, economics, planning, knowledge, sustainability, import, strategy, foresight

Abstract

Introduction: Ecuador faces dependence on oil revenues, limited productive diversification, and gaps in education, technology, and employment. This necessitates prioritizing strategic variables for sustainable development from 2025 to 2030. Methodology: A mixed-methods prospective approach was applied using Régnier's Abacus and MIC-MAC. Eleven variables were evaluated by four experts, and five were prioritized: education, health, entrepreneurship, technology, and alternative energy. Results: The analysis showed that health, entrepreneurship, and alternative energy are key drivers with significant influence. Technology demonstrates an articulating capacity, while education is highly dependent. Fiscal and extractive variables have less structural impact. Discussion: The findings indicate that sustainability depends more on human capital, innovation, and the energy transition than on oil revenues. Conclusions: Public policy should focus on key drivers linked to technological investment to generate sustainable development.

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Author Biographies

Paola Andrea Suárez Torres , Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE

Professor at the University of the Armed Forces – ESPE, teaching both in-person and online courses in subjects such as Management and Entrepreneurship, Problem-Based Learning, Educational Management, Strategic Planning, and Quality Management, among others. She holds a degree in Business Administration from the University of the Armed Forces and a master’s degree in Business Management from the Private University of Loja. My professional experience is characterized by service to the country through the public banking sector, overseeing the granting and recovery of microloans, as well as creating partnerships with other government institutions to collaborate on the development of microenterprises and entrepreneurship—a practice that has been the foundation of my teaching for 19 years.

Amparo Isabel Pilicita Garrido, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE

Bachelor of Business Administration, Master’s in Strategic Planning and Management, with advanced studies completed at the University of the Armed Forces (ESPE). I am currently a university professor, teaching courses such as Strategic Management, Project Management, Strategic Foresight, and Quality Management. Additionally, I have worked as a consultant in planning and process management for public and private institutions. Published articles: Strategic Prospective Planning and Its Relationship to Planning in the Ecuadorian Public Sector; Strategic Planning for the Metropolitan Commission for Combating Corruption; Comprehensive Attention to Service Solutions; Post-Oil Ecuador: A Reality. Book: Designing Prospective Scenarios: A Proactive Decision-Making Technique.

Yesenia Elizabeth Sánchez Torres, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE

She holds a Bachelor’s degree in Foreign Trade and International Business from the Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE and a Master’s degree in Foreign Trade (with a concentration in Business Development). She is a university professor with experience in customs and tax control, basic foreign trade operations, and customs regimes, integrating the theoretical and practical knowledge she acquired as a customs operations executive in the private sector. Author of articles on trade agreements and automation in customs management, with a focus on innovation and sustainable development. Committed to training professionals with strategic vision, ethics, and the skills to meet the challenges of international trade, driving the modernization of the sector and quality education.

Digna Marcela Viteri Moya, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE

Ph.D. in Management Sciences from the National University of La Plata, Argentina; Master of Business Administration (MBA) with a concentration in Marketing Management from the National Polytechnic School, Ecuador.

Full-time faculty member at the University of the Armed Forces – ESPE – Ecuador, teaching courses related to sustainability and entrepreneurship.

Coordinator of the Knowledge, Leadership, and Management Area in the Department of Economics, Administration, and Commerce at the University of the Armed Forces – ESPE.

César Antonio Portero Barrantes , Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE

Master of Business Administration from the Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, Ecuador; Mechanical Engineer from the Escuela Politécnica del Chimborazo, Ecuador.

Director of the Center for Military Applications Research at the University of the Armed Forces (ESPE). His professional career has spanned various management and technical positions in the Ecuadorian Navy, with 20 years of experience in technical and logistics fields.

Jesika Madelina Ojeda Hidalgo , Latin American Agribusiness Development Corporation (LAAD AMERICAS N.V)

Assistant Manager at LAAD AMERICAS N.V. in Quito, Ecuador, with a degree in Business Administration from the Universidad del Pacífico – School of Business and a master’s degree in Business Management from the Universidad Particular de Loja. His professional career has been in public banking as an Assistant Manager of Microcredit and in private banking supporting agricultural projects for small and medium-sized enterprises, with 26 years of experience in the credit and finance sector.

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